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Despite such an increase in climate pledges, concerns over two types of “gaps” still exist: the ambition gap and the implementation gap. First, there is criticism that the world will fail to limit the global temperature increase below 2°C even though current NDC targets are fulfilled, since the NDC targets themselves are insufficient to achieve the 1.5-2°C goal. The UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 finds that the full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs reduces expected emissions in 2030 by 4-10%, compared with 2019 levels, whereas 28-42% reductions are required to be aligned with the 1.5-2°C goal. This will lead 2.6-2.8°C increase in global temperature over the course of this century. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) also assessed that the emissions gap between benchmark emissions from a 1.5°C compatible pathway and 2030 NDCs is 19-23 GtCO2e.

The implementation gap, defined as the gap between a country’s target emissions and the emissions with the current policies, exacerbates the emission gap. Although governments are increasingly setting more ambitious emission reduction targets, many of them have shown very slow translation of their commitments into tangible progress, including the relevant legislation, stricter policy implementation, technology deployment, and financial investment, leading to insufficient emissions reductions compared to the NDC targets or even increases in emissions. For example, among G20 members, 11 countries are assessed to be off track to achieve their NDC targets with existing policies. Moreover, the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) showed that only 22 of the 64 surveyed CCPI countries are on track in terms of the current per capita GHG emissions with a Paris-aligned pathway. The UN Emissions Gap Report 2024 warns that the mitigation effort with the current policies would limit global warming to 3.1°C. Several factors, such as socio-economic development, technological and institutional capacities, disparities in natural resources, political conflicts, and unstable policies, hinder the effective implementation of climate action pledges.