Speaker: Professor Peter Hartley
George and Cynthia Mitchell Professor, Dept. of Economics, Rice University.
Rice Scholar, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy.
Academic Director, Shell Center for Sustainability.
Date: Tuesday, 13th July 2010
Time: 10:30 am to 11:30 am
Venue: ESI Conference Room
29 Heng Mui Keng Terrace
Block A #10-01
Singapore 119620
This seminar will be held under Chatham House rules: “When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.
Attendance will be limited to the first 30 respondents, please send us your name, organisation, designation and email address via the ESI website at www.esi.nus.edu.sg e-Registration. For enquiries, please contact Ms. Jan Lui at 65162000.
About the Seminar
The rapid growth in shale gas production in North America has had dramatic effects on the natural gas market. For one, the supply picture in North America has changed substantially, and altered expectations regarding future prices and import requirements either via a pipeline from Alaska or northern Canada, or in the form of LNG. The latter prospect has had a ripple effect to international LNG markets, and by displacement, markets in Asia and Europe. Furthermore, developments in North America have sparked interest in shale gas resource potential in other parts of the world, and the experience gained producing shale gas in North America will
likely translate to those other regions.
Nevertheless, sustained rapid development of shale gas is not a certainty. In particular, environmental and health concerns regarding the use, and potential contamination of water resources are major issues that will likely need to be addressed before governments will allow full realization of the growth potential from this resource. In addition, any policies that reduce demand for natural gas — possibly including certain renewable portfolio standards or CO2 cap-andtrade programs that grandfather coal resources — will likely result in lower prices, which will hamper investment in shale gas resources. In contrast, the state of knowledge regarding technical recoverability of the shale gas resource is still evolving. Thus, the ultimate technically recoverable resource could be substantially larger than now assessed.
In this presentation, we use the Rice World Gas Trade Model (RWGTM), a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model of the international natural gas market, to analyze how shale gas developments, or lack thereof, are likely to influence the world wide market for natural gas with a particular focus on markets in Asia
About the Speaker
Professor Peter Hartley completed an honors degree in mathematics, and a Masters Degree in Economics, at the Australian National University. He worked for the Priorities Review Staff and the Economic Division of the Prime Minister's Department in the Australian Government before studying at the University of Chicago, where he obtained a Ph.D. in Economics in 1980. From 1980 to 1986 he was an Assistant Professor of Economics at Princeton University. He moved to Rice University as an Associate Professor of Economics in August 1986 and was promoted to a Full Professor in 1993. He was chair of the Department of Economics at Rice from 2000 to 2005. Peter is also a Rice Scholar of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, where he works in the Energy Studies Program. He was awarded the George and Cynthia Mitchell chair in 2007, when he was also appointed as Academic Director of the Shell Center for Sustainability. Peter’s research has covered a number of areas, but has recently focused on energy economics. He has also been involved in public policy debates and as an advisor to governments and private firms on energy, electricity re-structuring, infrastructure development, and environmental issues.
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